It is well documented that the Tampa Bay area is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes and that the region has also dodged major hurricanes over the last century.

It is far too early for residents around Tampa Bay to breathe a sigh of relief, but Hurricane Milton wobbled farther south than expected Tuesday, leading to a southern shift in the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

Meteorologists usually stress not to focus on the exact track and to not even focus on the cone, because significant impacts always occur outside of the cone.In fact, the cone from the National Hurricane Center is only designed to capture the path of the storm two-thirds of the time.That means that one in three times the storm’s track falls outside of the cone.However, that exact track is very important when it comes to the details of the impacts.

The worst storm surge in Hurricane Milton is forecast to be near the landfall point and to the south, based on the angle it is approaching the coast.If the current trajectories showing a path toward Sarasota hold true, the worst storm surge would be into places like Sarasota, Venice and southward into surge-vulnerable places like Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda.On the northern side of the storm, winds across Tampa Bay would largely push water out of the bay, potentially even reducing the water levels as happened during Hurricane Ian, which made landfall near Fort Myers in 2022.

This current trajectory is only about 40 miles south of Tampa or 20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay and the NHC warns that uncertainty remains and additional wobbles – north or south – are possible. It is also very important to note that Tampa is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Even with a potential track south of Tampa, which would spare that area the worst of the surge, there is still a significant risk of catastrophic hurricane-force winds and flooding rain.Hurricane Milton is expected to grow into a large storm as it approaches landfall, and much of the Florida Peninsula will experience the wrath of the storm.